2009 Daytona 500 Betting Preview

This year's NASCAR betting season should be one of firsts. Will Jimmie Johnson become the first driver to win four consecutive Cup championships? Can JJ's new Hendrick Motorsports teammate Mark Martin cash the Sprint Cup for his first career title after decades of trying? How will things go at the window for Tony Stewart, who is hell-bent on being the first team owner to also win the Chase? Even the Daytona 500 surface is in on the act, as the track is being paved for the first time since 1978.

Despite the newness, oddsmakers are sticking with an old friend in setting a favorite for Sunday's Daytona 500. It should come as no surprise to bettors Johnson heads the odds list at +500, which is par for the course considering JJ's dominance over the past three years. Johnson was nearly flawless in completing the Chase last fall despite a late charge from Carl Edwards, who is priced at +1000 to take the checkered flag.

The Roush Fenway Racing star is seeing better value than expected despite leading NASCAR with nine wins in 2008. Edwards was the best driver at the end of the Chase, winning three of four races to end the season hot on Johnson's heels. Sharp bettors might be fading Edwards because of his relative struggles at Daytona and on longer tracks in general, as they could be eyeing Edwards for a better finish at Fontana, Las Vegas, and Atlanta.

Kyle Busch (+500) is the co-favorite along with JJ, in large part because of his throng of followers at the NASCAR betting window. It's almost hard to believe the younger Busch finished tenth in the Chase after such a strong start in his first season at Joe Gibbs Racing, but that's exactly what happened. Now the featured driver at JGR following the departure of Tony Stewart, Busch is poised to improve on his eight victories in '08 and contend for the Cup.

Stewart (+1000) drives for his newly formed Stewart-Haas Racing, along with teammate and 2008 Daytona 500 winner Ryan Newman (+3000). The combustible Stewart is always a smart play at Daytona, considering his strength in restrictor-plate races. Stewart looked on his game at the Budweiser Shootout, and is primed to improve on his one win from last season, when Stewart finished ninth in the standings.

Right behind Johnson is public favorite Dale Earnhardt Jr., who is set at +600 to take Daytona. Junior led a bunch of laps at last week's Shootout, but didn't finish at the front of the pack after fading - a characteristic Earnhardt Jr. backers know all too well. Junior has a history of starting races strong only to fizzle out after the fuel runs out, so tread lightly on a driver who's won only three races over the last four years.



Hendrick veteran Jeff Gordon is always a contender at Daytona, and oddsmakers have recognized this by pricing No. 24 at +700. Gordon has won at Daytona before, and has an excellent history on 2.5-mile tracks dating back to his rookie season in 1993. His first season was also the last time Gordon went winless - with the exception of '08. Is this the beginning of the end for the best driver of the era, or does Gordon have something left in the tank? An argument for the latter should be centered on Gordon's seventh-place finish last season, which included four poles, 13 top-fives, and 19 top-10s.

Kevin Harvick is a sharp wager at +2000, although winning the Budweiser Shootout could force oddsmakers to drop his value as Sunday approaches. Richard Childress Racing's No. 1 gun is going for his second career Daytona win after taking the race in 2007, and is flying under the radar after finishing fourth in the Chase last season. Harvick is underrated because he went winless in '08 despite seven top-fives and an impressive 19 top-10 finishes.

Martin, Penske's Kurt Busch, and JGR's Denny Hamlin are all potentially profitable at +1200. The 50-year old Martin plans to run a full season in what is likely his last kick at the Cup can, while the older Busch is valuable because of his ability in restrictor-plate races. The 2004 Daytona winner was second to Newman last year, and ended the season with five top-fives despite being excluded from the Chase, which Hamlin was part of for the third straight year in 2008.




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by BetUS at 1800-sports.com on February 14, 2009


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