Free Betting Tip - Betting Baseball TotalsFree Betting Tip - Betting Baseball Totals = Nice Profit by Tom Morgan of 1800-Sports
Want a free betting tip? Consider betting baseball totals! Hardly anything has been written on the subject. When one handicaps baseball totals there is more to review than just the total runs that might be scored. Here is a basic fundamental free betting tip to consider when betting baseball totals.
Real Numbers verses Actual Posted Lines
This is an easy one to remember. Nearly 95 percent of all posted total lines are between 7 and 10, yet the actual total scores of between 7 and 10 happen only between 35% and 38% of the time. Okay, so this information might not be so helpful. What follows requires a little bit of mathematics, but the rewards are usually worthwhile when betting baseball totals.
When betting baseball totals, review each pitchers recent three game home or away ERA's depending on which one applies on the given day. Try to determine what you believe a pitcher's ERA shall be for the upcoming game based on such stats. This decision will be based on the opposing batters and how they have individually performed in recent games and against this pitcher in the past. Next, figure out what percentage of the game you expect this pitcher to throw. 4 1/2 innings would be equal to 50% of the game. 7 full innings is approximately 75% of the game. If we determined the ERA based on the factors above would be 3.50, this number is then multiplied by 75%, which equals 2.62 runs given up by this starter. Check out Bodog and start winning NOW! Bodog is known in the online gambling industry for having a phenomenal customer service department, safe and secure deposit methods, fast payouts and terrific bonuses! Sign up today at Bodog and deposit by using their comprehensive deposit screening, with your credit card or with MoneyGram!
Now let's assume the most likely relievers to have a composite ERA of 2.75, I would multiply that number by 25% (the remaining portion of the game) to arrive at 6/8th of a run. Combine this with what you predict the starter will give up and you arrive at a number of just over 3. We now expect this team's pitching to give up approximately 3 runs on that particular day against that particular opposition.
Now you do the same thing for the opposing team when betting baseball totals. Let's say the final tally for that baseball team using the steps above comes out to 4.30. You now have a total of 7 1/2 runs expected. Chances are you have landed right on the bookie's number. There is more that needs to be considered from here for our free betting tip which will shift that number in either direction to provide an excellent overlay or underlay opportunity.
1.) A baseball team with a high batting average and a low run production average translates into a lack of power hitting, poor base running and other noteworthy shortcomings. When a strong 270 or higher batting average is accompanied by an on-base percentage about as strong, you will usually find a much better than average run production. A good slugging team with power and good base running can consistently score plenty of runs. Check on each team's runs scored and allowed to determine its rank within the league. If above, factor in at least a half point to the total you have arrived at above. Deduct a half point if they are below average.
2.) The ballpark plays a major role in determining a final score.
Their measurements are all different. But the altitudes vary as well.
Colorado's
ball park for example sits at the highest altitude and balls are able to carry
much farther (due to less air resistance). Other ball parks may be listed as
either UNDER parks based on their configurations or OVER parks. Fenway is
considered an OVER park. Base lines are closer to the stands. The left field
wall disfavors visitors fielding play, allowing more hits and extra base
slugging. Click here for the 2008 World Series betting odds and the 2008 baseball World Series predictions by Tom Morgan! Philadelphia's Veteran's Stadium was another excellent OVER park before it got imploded. All a good handicapper has to do is keep record of the number of runs scored in each of the ball park's 82 games. When betting baseball totals, remember that a baseball team might have exceptionally good pitching in a given year and this must be factored into the equation. This is a very important determination in helping one to arrive at their final total number.
3.) A quickie free baseball betting tip when reviewing totals: look for slightly higher scoring on turf and slightly lower scoring on grass. Apply a half point either way to the number you have arrived at thus far.
4.) Review any wind conditions just prior to the game. You should be able to forecast correctly hours before via the Weather Channel website local weather report (hourly forecast for that day). In San Francisco, for example, the winds off the bay will often range between ten to twenty miles an hour during the long summer months. A good left handed batting lineup definitely has an advantage here as the winds run from left to right. In Dallas, the opposite is true as the prevailing winds are from the west, which blow from right to left. Fast ball pitching also gets affected by the wind. Winds coming in from center tend to increase the speed and batters will tend to swing late, resulting in a high amount of pop ups and fly balls, not to mention strikes. Incoming winds, meanwhile, reduce the number of home runs. And winds blowing out to center tend to slow down a pitcher's fast ball, thus allowing for more hits and a better chance for home runs. To say that WIND is a factor in determining OVERS and UNDERS would be an UNDERSTATEMENT.
5.) Our final free betting tip in this category will be to review umpires and their labels (i.e. The OVER or UNDER umpire). Many websites place a strong emphasis on the umpire factor and you should too. Within this article, we will not go into any type of detail concerning the umpire equation as that is a whole other article in and of itself. Remember this important factor when betting baseball. Most will agree that each umpire is fairly consistent when it comes to their strike zone dimensions. Study the OVER/UNDER ratio of umpires (review websites that contain such information like Stat Fox) and factor it into your overall determined TOTAL.
With any luck you should have a final number far enough over or under the lines maker's odds to determine an appropriate score that can be applied.
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