The NFL Betting Line and its Importanceby Mike Jones of 1800-sports.com
The most important single numbers when reviewing NFL betting lines are "3" and "7". These are important since the vast majority of games win by either a field goal or a touchdown. The numbers "1", "4", "6", "10", "13" and "14" also occur with some degree of frequency, though are not nearly as common as "3" and"7". The NFL betting line is derived from a consortium of sharp linesmakers who certainly encompass a keen sense for where the game will ultimately land in conjunction with the line. The savvy sports bettor understands the frequency in which games fall within a point of the actual line. Unfortunately, most gamblers tend to be on the wrong side. Teasers really add a significant edge but are diluted someone by the number of games that must win, though the payout odds tend to compensate. Teasers allow one to subtract or add 6 or more points (super teasers allow for double digit alterations) but with various team combinations. Check out Bovada and start winning NOW! Bovada Sportsbook, Casino, Poker Room & Racebook is known in the online gambling industry for having phenomenal customer service, safe and secure deposit methods, fast & easy payouts and terrific bonuses! BET on Sports & play Poker at BOVADA and receive a 20% FREE BET on your first deposit!Here is the frequency in which specific scores occurred during the 2001 NFL season (starting from most frequent at the top): 3 17.3%
Field Goal An NFL football line of "3" is especially important to analyze and come in handy when playing teasers. Here, the linesmaker (and public) consider the teams to be of equal strength with a slight edge usually going to the home team or that with a better record. Normally one will find lines somewhere in the middle between a "3" and "7" favoring the away team when the home team simply does not match up. More often than not, games that are given a line of "3" in the NFL tend to stay within 10 points. It is not unusual to find some weeks when 3 points decide close to half the games. Of course, teasers aside, this bit of information doesn't help much if you don't know which side the game is going to fall. Most line watchers realize that "sharp" action dictates a line move, hence, when an NFL football line opens at "3" and moves down to "2" rather quickly, "sharp" money is on the dog (as the linesmaker is trying to tempt his public players into betting on the lower number "2"). Some of the sharpest lines (and those that other shops tend to follow) are found at sportsbooks the likes of Pinnacle, Grande and Olympic. Following the line moves at these three primary establishments can be beneficial. One important note to make is that the public in general often makes the mistake of going against a team that announces serious injuries to a key player such as the quarterback. Remember that the linesmaker normally has already factored in this equation and realizes that the public will be betting the other side and, as such, creates significantly higher overlays to adjust. Check out Bovada and start winning NOW! Bovada Sportsbook, Casino, Poker Room & Racebook is known in the online gambling industry for having phenomenal customer service, safe and secure deposit methods, fast & easy payouts and terrific bonuses! BET on Sports & play Poker at BOVADA and receive a 20% FREE BET on your first deposit!
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by Mike Jones at 1800-sports.com on January 25, 2006 |
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