Australian Open Odds - Federer, Nadal and Djokovic Tennis Action

By Nila Amerova


Melbourne, Australia - Two-time defending champion and 2004 winner Roger Federer embarked on the defence of his Australian Open title yesterday in fine style, defeating Diego Hartfield of Argentina 6-0, 6-3, 6-0 in just a little over an hour. Backed by the bookies at the start of the tournament (priced at -200 to win outright with BetUS Sportsbook), Federer is one of the safest bets available at the tournament.

Since Federer is so strongly backed to lift his third consecutive title and fourth overall in Melbourne; it follows, focus would shift to his likely opponent in the final. Who will emerge from the bottom half of the draw?

An interesting fracas developed with sportsbooks over which of the youngin's - No.2 Rafael Nadal (priced at +650 to win outright) or No.3 Novak Djokovic (priced at +550 to win outright) would be most likely to have an opportunity to stop Federer's advance and in turn knock him off his number one ranking.

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Foremost rival Nadal has long been viewed as the most likely candidate, but a worrying loss to Mikhail Youzhny in the final of the Chennai Open two weeks ago has shifted popular opinion to the up-and-coming Serbian Novak Djokovic as the most likely contender during the course of the Australian Open. However, perhaps too much value was placed on Nadal's 0-6, 1-6 loss against Youzhny. In the semifinal of the Chennai Open, Nadal faced his mentor and friend, a man he admires the most - fellow Majorcan Carlos Moya; the emotional and gruelling contest went the distance and into the wee hours of the morning-three marathon sets before Nadal savoured bittersweet victory 6-7(3), 7-6(10), 7-6(1). Is it then any wonder Nadal had nothing left in the tank afterwards with which to face Mikhail Youzhny in the final?

Nadal and Djokovic priced so closely to win the Australian Open both offer enticing value for tennis bettors. However, while Nadal sits in the bottom half of the draw, Djokovic fell into the same half of the draw as Federer. For Djokovic to reach the final, he would have to defeat Federer in a potential semifinal meeting between the two. (Better scenario would be if someone should defeat Federer before the semifinal.)

But it is not as simple as that. For in Federer's quarter, Tomas Berdych looms as a possible contender in the R16 - possibly his toughest challenge en route to the semifinal; Robin Haase, who just upset Ivan Ljubicic in the first round, Fernando Gonzalez and James Blake could emerge as quarterfinal challengers, before a possible semifinal clash with Djokovic could present itself. In Djokovic's quarter, his path is littered with threats - from a possible contest with Dmitry Tursunov or Sam Querrey in the third round to Lleyton Hewitt, Marcos Baghdatis or 2005 Australian Open champion Marat Safin in the R16 and the tricky David Nalbandian or gritty David Ferrer in the quarterfinal.

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Nadal on the other hand was slightly favoured by the draw, with his first challenge a potential matchup in the R16 against Paul-Henri Mathieu and an even tougher challenge most likely against Andy Roddick in the quarterfinal round. In the semifinal round, Nadal could possibly face Richard Gasquet, Jo-Wilfred Tsonga, Nikolay Davydenko or Mikhail Youzhny. However, against all, Nadal holds a winning record: 2-1 over Roddick, 2-0 over Davydenko, 6-4 over Youzhny, 1-0 over Tsonga, 6-0 over Mathieu and 4-0 over Gasquet. If stats were an indication, Nadal would be a sound bet to emerge from the bottom half of the draw as one of the final two players to vie for the title.

Nadal has held the world No.2 since July 25, 2005, but has made no qualms about wanting to reach the pinnacle of the South African Airways ATP Rankings. At the 2008 Australian Open, a new ATP World No.1 player could be crowned: Nadal would edge into the No.1 position if he should win the title and Federer loses before the semifinals or Nadal reaches the final and Federer loses before the third round. A dubious scenario for most to contemplate, but not entirely unlikely, as Federer was perhaps dealt one of the toughest draws in this year's Australian Open.


Nila Amerova is a freelance sports writer and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room.

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by BetUS at 1800-sports.com on January 30, 2008


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