Breeders' Cup Picks - Expert Handicapper/Racing Writer Greg MelikovBy Greg MelikovWagerWeb.com Contributing Writer The most wide open of Saturday's eight Breeders' Cup World Thoroughbred Championship races is the $2 million Juvenile Fillies at 1 1/16 miles on the Churchill Downs main track. Fleet Indian, 8-5, is the mare to beat in the $2 million Distaff for 3-year-olds and up. Favorites have dominated: 17 winners were less than 3-1. The 5-year-old daughter of Indian Charlie hasn't tasted defeat in more than a year, and that was at seven furlongs in the slop. Five of eight consecutive victories were at 1 1/8 miles at five different tracks. Jose Santos (7-2-4 in 62 BC races) was aboard the Pletcher trainee the past six winning trips. In with an excellent chance to upset is Pine Island, 5-1, with Javier Castellano aboard for Shug McGaughey (9-9-1 of 48 BC races), with three victories and never worse than second in a half-dozen outings. Two others who could surprise are Pool Land, 10-1, one of six rides on Pletcher horses for Velazquez, three for her last four with triple-digit Brisnet.com speed ratings, and Balletto, 6-1, who lost her last by a head to Fleet Indian, but has a bad case of seconditis going back to her last triumph 13 months ago. Of five Distaff contests at Churchill Downs, Spain in '00 went the distance the fastest, 1:47 3/5, and returned the most, $113.80. A dozen European-bred horses have won the $3 million Turf for 3-year-olds and up. Those making their last start overseas captured the past six in a row. But this year's crop of invaders is thin. Hurricane Run, although the early 3-1 favorite, hasn't won since four back, covering the good Ascot turf course in 2:30 1/5 for 1 miles on July 29. But the 4-year-old colt is 4-2-0 of 7 at the distance. Tikkanen set the Churchill Downs track record of 2:26 2/5 for 1 miles on the grass in '94. I like English Channel, 7-2, a disappointing fifth in '05, but 4 of 6 this year with a victory at the Kentucky track. The Velazquez-Pletcher combo can do it. Others with a chance are the fast-closing Go Deputy, 6-1, boasting a 3-5-1 record in 9 grass routes this year, and Cacique, 4-1, with 2-3-0 of 6 turf routes in '06 for Robert Frankel (4-9-7 of 66 BC races). The $5 million Classic at 1 miles, 3-year-olds and up, has been captured by sophomores six times since '89. Post-time favorites won seven times, including last year when Saint Liam surged past Flower Alley, leaving the furlong marker to score a length victory in 2:01 2/5. Tiznow, who as a 3-year-old captured the first of two Classics in '00, covered the 10 furlongs at Churchill Downs in 2:00 3/5. It appears the 23rd edition is Bernardini's to lose, judging from his past two victories at the distance. The son of A. P. Indy, who won as a 3-year-old in '92, goes for his seventh in a row. Two significant facts: Black Tie Affair in '91 scored off the longest layoff, 49 days, at Churchill Downs. It was the first of only two wire-to-wire winners; the other Ghostzapper in '04. Bernardini, the early even-money favorite, and Lava Man, 6-1, going for his eighth consecutive win, both have tactical speed. However, the son of Slew City Slew lost twice the last time he departed West Coast tracks. The 5-1 second choice, Invasor, is unbeaten in his last three, including an impressive victory in the Suburban at the distance last summer, but has been off for three months. Premium Tap, 30-1, might be worth a bet since the 4-year-old has won every other route since March. The off-again, on-again, off-again pattern could be on-again at a price.
--- by Greg Melikov at WagerWeb.com on November 04, 2006
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