College Football Gambling Line

Who makes college football gambling lines? Where do they come from? The creation of any given football gambling line is the purview of an odds maker or, more often than not, several odds makers. Odds makers are sort of like handicappers in that the gambling lines they create are based upon studied speculation. In other words, a college football gambling line, or any gambling line for that matter, is a probability; an educated guess of a game's most likely outcome given a certain set of factors. While each odds maker uses a somewhat different approach to creating a line, all of them make use of the same data: team stats, home team versus away, injuries, public mood, etc.

Generally, a college football gambling line will begin with a preliminary point spread on an upcoming game. This preliminary point spread is based upon power ratings. Each team has a power rating, which is adjusted after games or other events (like injuries) demonstrate or influence the strength of a given team. The preliminary line will then be honed by including more details into the analysis. A team's performance in their most recent game, how they performed the last time they went up against the same opponent, and newspaper reports that give a sense of how the attitude of coaches and players going into the game will have an effect upon the college football gambling line.

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At this point in the creation of the gambling line, the odds maker will have to break away from empirical data and start taking more abstract matters into consideration. A betting bias over the course of several weeks for a given team will cause most odds makers to adjust the college football gambling line. This is a simple supply and demand situation. If the Cornhuskers have a preliminary line of -6, a public bias will cause most odds makers to adjust the gambling line upwards to -6.5 or -7.

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The final two steps in the creation of a college football gambling line are common-sense and consensus. After the data is run and public opinion accounted for, the odds maker will check the line against their own judgment. Does the line make sense? If the odds maker works with a group of odds makers, he or she will compare their lines and even them out accordingly. In this way a college football gambling line should theoretically be bias free, as you must also be when choosing which line will offer you the best chance of success.


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by Mike Jones at 1800-sports.com on October 26, 2007


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