2010 College Football Picks Week One College Football Picks Week 1 Babes 2010 College Football Picks Week 1 The 2010 college football picks season kicks off in less than two days. Who are the contenders and who are the pretenders this season? Last year's preseason AP Top 25 consisted of Oklahoma (3), Oklahoma State (9), California (12) and Georgia (13). None of the four finished the season in the Top 25. Traditional powerhouses Florida State (18) and Notre Dame (23) were also ranked to start the season and both schools finished with six losses apiece. On the flip side, Cincinnati was unranked, but managed an unbeaten regular season. Pittsburgh, Wisconsin and Miami also went from unranked in the preseason, to top-20 ranked teams at season's end. Correctly predicting which teams will fall under each category can go a long way to increasing your football betting bankroll at Sportsbook.com. Check out Bovada and start winning NOW! Bovada Sportsbook, Casino, Poker Room & Racebook is known in the online gambling industry for having phenomenal customer service, safe and secure deposit methods, fast & easy payouts and terrific bonuses! BET on Sports & play Poker at BOVADA and receive a 20% FREE BET on your first deposit! 2010 College Football Predictions Week 1 by Reno Gold Boise State vs Virginia Tech 2010 College Football Predictions: For those wishing to bet on this game, all I say is good luck. Both these teams look solid, as top-10 teams should. However, predicting a winner proves difficult. I have leaned back and forth over this game but now it's game time and I must make a call -- so I'm going with the Bronco's. [W] SMU vs Texas Tech College Football Predictions: It's true that SMU hasn't been very good for a few decades now. The last time the Mustangs beat Tech was in 1986 when they pulled off a 13-6 shocker in Lubbock. But these two teams have gone through big changes and old trends don't factor in. What happened the past ten years or so at both schools is comparing apples and oranges. That's why I am fading the oddsmakers and predicting SMU comes to play. It's a pick to me. Take SMU +13 1/2. [W] Tulsa vs East Carolina 2010 College Football Picks: Oddsmakers love Tulsa's offense but they will run into a stout Pirate defense that has enough returning players who domiinated the Hurricane the past two years in a row. Giving the Pirates 8 1/2-points is biting off a big chew for Tulsa. We like ECU + 8 1/2. [W] North Carolina vs LSU 2010 College Football Picks: Carolina is getting all the attention for all the wrong reasons. In what was nearly a pick when betting opened, is now favoring LSU by 9 1/2. I was calling for a Tar Heels upset in the beginning and still expect a tight game. My pick is still North Carolina ATS +9 1/2. [W] USM vs South Carolina College Football Picks: My prediction here is the Gamecocks take care of business and win by three touchdowns. Anything less will be a disappointment, considering Carolina is touted as a serious challenger in the SEC East. I do not see how the total will stay under 47 points either. If USM's secondary is as bad as it was last year, the sky's the limit for a Steve Spurrier coached team. [W/W] Minnesota vs Middle Tennessee State U College Football Picks: Trust me when I say, smart money will be all over the Blue Raiders +3 at home. The top of the Sun Belt is better than the lower ranks of the BIG TEN. [L] Pittsburgh vs Utah College Football Picks: SBG Global lists Utah as a 2 1/2-chalk favorite with a 49 total. What this line tells us is, the game is a PICK but the book is giving the Utes 2 1/2 points because its in their stadium. I agree - Utes win by a field goal and the total sails OVER 49 points. [W/W] One of the best ways to determine a team's worth is to look at how many starters return, especially at the quarterback position. But bettors can't simply assume that all static teams not undergoing major changes and returning the majority of its starters will automatically improve this year. Rice returns 18 starters from a team that went 2-10 last year and Syracuse returns 20 starters from a team that was 1-6 against Big East squads. These records are due to poor or inefficient head coaches, coordinators and players, especially the QBs. To determine which games were the largest mismatches in terms of experience, we added all offensive and defensive returning starters and gave a bonus point to teams with the same starting quarterback. For Week 1, 14 of the 39 games have a comparative experience advantage of at least five. Here are those games along with our opinions to the degree that the experience differential will matter. The point spreads shown were those available when we went to press. Arkansas St - Off: 2, Def: 3 Auburn - Off: 7, Def: 8 Advantage: Auburn +10 Spread: Auburn -30 Auburn has a monstrous experience advantage, with a +5 factor on both sides of the ball. Auburn has a new JUCO transfer QB Cameron Newton (6-6, 247) who can hurt you on the ground or in the air. Arkansas State may not have the firepower to keep up with the Tigers, but the Red Wolves have a tendency to keep games close, losing three games by just a field goal last year. But those were against Sun Belt foes, not SEC teams. Expect Auburn to cover the hefty spread. Boise State - Off: 10*, Def: 10 vs. Virginia Tech - Off: 8*, Def: 4 Advantage: Boise State +8 Spread: Boise State -3 This is where the experience factor really comes into play. In a game with two explosive offenses and sound defense, which team do you pick? This contest will be played on a "neutral" FedEx Field in Washington, DC, but that is a heck of a lot closer to Virginia than Idaho. The Hokies' loss of seven defensive starters could loom large against such a dynamic and creative offensive attack. Va Tech lost three starters in their secondary and Kellen Moore (39 TD, 3 INT) will exploit any mismatches he sees. Time to jump onto the Boise bandwagon and pick the Broncos. Tulsa - Off: 9*, Def: 5 East Carolina - Off: 5, Def: 2 Advantage: Tulsa +8 Spread: Tulsa -7.5 Tulsa's huge experience advantage could be the deciding factor in this difficult game to predict. The Golden Hurricane returns nine starters on offense, including QB G.J. Kinne and RB Jahmad Williams. In addition to ECU losing 15 starters, it is also replacing its head coach and offensive coordinator and switching to a spread offense. Although it is tempting to take the home underdog, there is too much instability for ECU to win SU or ATS against a quality team like Tulsa. Washington St - Off: 8*, Def: 9 Oklahoma St - Off: 6, Def: 4 Advantage: Washington St. +8 Spread: Oklahoma St -14.5 WSU has a decided advantage in the experience department, but OSU is a big home favorite. The Cowboys try to replace QB Zac Robinson with 26-year-old junior Brandon Weeding. He has fared well in his brief college career (16-27, 256 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT), but will have four new O-Linemen. On the defensive side of the ball, the Cowboys don't have much left. WSU signal-caller Jeff Tuel was adequate last year (71-121, 789 yds, 6 TD, 5 INT), and we suggest taking the experienced Cougars getting the points. Miami (OH) - Off: 9*, Def: 9 Florida - Off: 6, Def: 5 Advantage: Miami (OH) +8 Spread: Florida -35 It's difficult to give an experience advantage to a Miami (OH) program that has lost 21 of its last 24 contests. Florida lost a ton, but the Gators still have a whole host of future NFL players on the roster, including strong-armed QB John Brantley. RedHawks sophomore QB Zac Dysert may never face a better defense in his life, but if he can get protection, he has two good senior wideouts, Armand Robinson and Jamal Rogers. Brantley will lead Florida to a 40-point blowout win. Illinois - Off: 5, Def: 7 Missouri - Off: 9*, Def: 9 Advantage: Missouri +7 Spread: Missouri -13 Mizzou has a huge experience advantage in this game with +5 on the offensive side and +2 on the defensive side. Only three current collegians (C.Keenum, T.Potts, R.Mallett) tallied more passing YPG than Tigers QB Blaine Gabbert's 276 pass YPG. Defensive ends Jacquies Smith and Aldon Smith anchor a defense that only lost two starters. Illinois has six new coaches and a freshman QB, Nathan Scheelhaase. All these factors lead to Mizzou winning and covering the Arch Rivalry. Texas - Off: 6, Def: 7 Rice - Off: 9*, Def: 9 Advantage: Rice +6 Spread: Texas -28 This contest is one where the experience factor is more of a detriment than an asset. Rice returns 18 starters from a team that went 2-10 last year. When you consider the program stability of Texas, the Owls' experience factor is nullified. Texas lost a lot with QB Colt McCoy, WR Jordan Shipley, DE/LB Sergio Kindle and DB Earl Thomas, but the Longhorns have good players to fill those voids, like QB Garrett Gilbert. Texas will win by at least 35 points in front of a Longhorn partisan crowd. Washington - Off: 10*, Def: 6 BYU - Off: 6, Def: 6 Advantage: Washington +5 Spread: BYU -3 Returning starters experience is very significant in this matchup. Washington is a program on the rise with superstar QB Jake Locker. BYU lost its two top offensive players, QB Max Hall and RB Harvey Unga, who left following an honor code violation. The Cougars will begin the season with a 2-QB system with junior Riley Nelson and freshman Jake Heaps. BYU traditionally boasts a strong passing attack, but there will certainly be an adjustment period for two QBs. The Huskies are the pick here. Wisconsin - Off: 6*, Def: 5 UNLV - Off: 8*, Def: 8 Advantage: UNLV +5 Spread: Wisconsin -20.5 UNLV has an experience edge in this contest, but Wisconsin has superior talent, most notably QB Scott Tolzien (16 TD) and RB John Clay (1,517 yards). Wisconsin lost some bodies on defense but it still has superior players on defense too, most notably LB Chris Borland and CB Niles Brinkley. UNLV ranked 115th in total defense last year, allowing a monstrous 456 YPG, but new Rebels head coach Bobby Hauck has been hired to fix the their 115th-ranked defense. Take the Badgers and lay the wood. North Texas - Off: 10*, Def: 8 Clemson - Off: 7*, Def: 6 Advantage: North Texas +5 Spread: Clemson -23.5 North Texas has the advantage in experience, but the Mean Green do not have the depth and talent of Clemson. The Tigers lost their best player in RB C.J. Spiller, but they still have enough talent to handle the large spread. Both teams' quarterbacks return and RB Lance Dunbar (1,378 yards, 17 TD, 6.9 yds per carry) is the best player for North Texas. North Texas must take better care of the football (minus-14 in turnovers last year) if it wants to keep this close. Clemson is the pick here. Northern Illinois - Off: 8*, Def: 9 Iowa State - Off: 8*, Def: 4 Advantage: Northern Illinois +5 Spread: Iowa State -3.5 The differential here is entirely on the defensive side. Iowa State loses seven from a team that allowed 416 total YPG (ranked 99th in nation). Northern Illinois only loses two players from a defense with better numbers than ISU's. The Huskies allowed 330 YPG (30th in nation). The Cyclones played against superior offensive teams in the Big 12 than NIU faced in the MAC. But this huge discrepancy in yardage allowed, more than makes up for this perceived talent gap. NIU is the pick ATS. Florida Atlantic - Off: 3*, Def: 9 UAB - Off: 8*, Def: 9 Advantage: UAB +5 Spread: UAB -13.5 The differential here is entirely on the offensive side. Both teams lose their QBs, but Joe Webb contributed more to UAB as the team's leading rusher than Rusty Smith did to FAU. Webb's replacement David Isabelle has thrown only 14 passes as a collegiate, but Owls senior QB Jeff Van Camp, played 10 games (five starts) when Smith was hurt last year. FAU also returns its best RB Alfred Morris. Because the Owls have more skill-position depth than the Blazers, the difference here is nullified. Take the Owls ATS. Arizona - Off: 10*, Def: 7 Toledo - Off: 6*, Def: 6 Advantage: Arizona +5 Spread: Arizona -14.5 Since there is little difference on defense, let's focus on offense. Arizona only loses one player while Toledo loses five, including QB Aaron Opelt and RB DaJuane Collins. Opelt was clearly the star and leader of the Rockets. He will be replaced by sophomore Austin Dantin, who was decent in his five games (three starts) -- 79-119, 962 yds, 4 TD, 4 INT. Arizona keeps its two best players in QB Nick Foles and NB Nic Grigsby, which is enough reason to give the points on the road. That's a lot of information football fans, now get over to Sportsbook.com and place your bets. --- by Bones at 1800-sports.com on August 30, 2010
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