Division SeriesBy Tom Brew I've seen a lot of crazy finishes to baseball games and baseball seasons, but Sunday's finale to the regular season had to rank right up there. And because of it, all that planning for the first week of the baseball playoffs got tossed out the window. I had the Tigers winning the AL Central. Wrong. I had the Cardinals gagging all week, but then they hung on and kept the red-hot Astros out of the playoffs. Wrong again. So we start from scratch, and we'll still try to figure all this out for you. Here are some things we know for sure: All four AL teams are better than anything the National League has to offer. The Tigers, who were so good for five months, have fallen so hard I can't see how they can recover. 
The Cardinals are so lucky to be in a playoffs that it's amazing. They are, in my opinion, the worst playoff team I've seen. If they played in the American League all season, they wouldn't have won 70 games. The Yankees are certainly the favorites going into the playoffs, but I'm telling you right now they will not win it all. I had the Twins, with Johan Santana pitching twice, taking them out in the first round. I'm sticking with the Twins to win it all, and I like the Padres in the NL. Here's a breakdown at how I look at all four series: OAKLAND vs. MINNESOTA (Game 1, Tuesday, 1 p.m.) The Twins were all set to travel to New York after Sunday's game, but got a break when the Tigers lost again to the Kansas City Royals. Now the Twins get Oakland instead and get to stay home. That's huge for the team that had the best home record in baseball. "People are going to say, 'Well, we backed into this,' " Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said. "No, no, no. Our division was as good as baseball gets between the White Sox, the Tigers and us, battling until the end." He's exactly right, which is why I like them so much. The Twins finished 96-66, one game ahead of the Tigers. For the first time since May 15, the Tigers weren't in first place Sunday. The Twins were, and the AL Central is without a doubt baseball's best division. The Twins have played great for four months, and I don't see that slowing down. I love the Twins in both games at home and look for them to win this series in three games, four at the most. And it would really be huge if they can win it without using Santana twice. The WagerWeb.com series line is Minnesota -$165. DETROIT vs. NEW YORK YANKEES (Game 1, 8 p.m., Tuesday) Getting the Tigers instead of the Twins was a huge break for the Yankees. I see them winning this in four, with the only loss being Game 3 in Detroit. That'll be the Tigers' one-and-done game. Based on what Yankees manager Joe Torre saw in the bullpen Sunday, Randy Johnson will start Game 3 of the ALDS Friday against the Tigers in Detroit. I don't see him being effective, but I love Chien-Ming Wang and Mike Mussina in the first two games. Johnson was diagnosed with a herniated disc Thursday, was given an epidural injection Friday and played catch Saturday. Sunday was the first time he threw off a mound in eight days. "We anticipate everything will be fine," said Torre. Predictably, Johnson was the least encouraged by the outing, although he did say he was "pretty pleased." "Everybody was more pleased than I was," said Johnson, who hasn't started a game since Sept. 23 when he gave up five runs and nine hits in six innings. "I am cautiously optimistic, but stiff." The Tigers have to be spent after blowing the Central this weekend. They were 14-1 against the Royals coming into the weekend and only had to win one game to clinch the division and avoid the Yankees. They couldn't do it, and now they're done. I know the number is high on the Yankees (WagerWeb.com series line is New York -$325), but there's no way they can lose this series. LOS ANGELES DODGERS vs. NEW YORK METS (Game 1, Wednesday, 4 p.m.) Everyone seems to be jumping off the Mets bandwagon since Pedro Martinez isn't around, but don't do it. Their lineup is still head-and-shoulders better than anyone else in the National League and the only question is whether or not they have enough pitching. I don't think that matters as much in the first round. The Dodgers have been hot and cold all year, so you really don't know which team will show up this week. But I like the Mets' lineup so much and think the LA bullpen is horrific, so I don't expect many problems. The series line (WagerWeb.com has the Mets at -$160) is actually a great buy. Two weeks ago, that line would have been at least -$200. Jump all over it in this round and watch those Mets hitters have a field day, especially late in games. ST. LOUIS vs. SAN DIEGO (Game 1, 4 p.m., Tuesday) The Cardinals don't even deserve to be in the playoffs. After avoiding what would have been the worst collapse in baseball history, they now have to face the Padres, starting on the road, and I don't think they have a chance. In fact, I like the Padres in three. The Cardinals are lucky to be here. "I don't think anybody on this club wanted to be associated with mugging that lead," Cards manager Tony La Russa said. "That's one of those historic things that you'll never forget. We wanted to some way, some how, get into the playoffs, and we did it." Even though they reached the postseason despite losing nine of 12, they're catching the Padres at the wrong time. LaRussa's lone bright move in two weeks was taking a chance Sunday by holding back ace Chris Carpenter. With the Astros losing, that freed up Carpenter to start Game 1 Tuesday against Jake Peavy. That gives the Cards a bit more hope, but I love Peavy in this spot and I like the way the Padres are playing. Look for the sweep. The WagerWeb.com series line is Padres -$160.
--- by Tom Brew at wagerweb.com on October 08, 2006
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