Fantasy Football Draft Strategies - Part 1 of 3

For all the time, money, blood, sweat, and tears that we devote to fantasy football, a good portion of the outcome of each season is based purely on luck. It's not quite like a slot machine - but it's close. A fantasy owner may have a great draft and make timely waiver wire moves, but he's always just one big injury (Priest Holmes, 2005), suspension (Ricky Williams, 2004), or complete flop (Willis McGahee, 2005) away from missing the fantasy playoffs. Likewise, some dope in your league last year could've drafted Mike Vick in the first round and Fred Taylor in the second; yet stumbled into Larry Johnson in the 6th, Warrick Dunn in the 7th, Santana Moss in the 8th, and Plaxico Burress in the 9th, and won the whole darn league.

Such is the game we play, and the headaches it causes.

That said, there are certainly ways to swing the probabilities in your favor. Think of fantasy football like another casino game - poker. What separates the guys you see on ESPN from the guys at your weekly game is nothing fundamental - the game is still based on the turn of a card. In fact, if a regular poker player played 10 games against a world champion, you'd expect the regular guy to win a few of them. However, in the long run, the little things that the world champion do will lead to overall success.

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Fantasy football works the same way. Though any owner can win a league in a given year, those owners who really know what they're doing are the ones that will have long-term success. While there are many aspects of "really knowing what you're doing," the cornerstone is the fantasy draft. After all, if you have a great fantasy draft, then you're less likely to have to scramble to make trades and gamble on waiver wire players later on.

This article, then, is designed to help fantasy owners develop a coherent draft strategy. Again, following the tips in this article will most certainly not "guarantee" any kind of success, just as playing great poker doesn't mean you'll win any hands. However, I believe (as do just about all experienced fantasy owners) that the following basic guidelines will help.

First, running backs are king. One of the most common mistakes made by inexperienced owners is to look at the fantasy point totals from the previous year, and conclude that since quarterbacks score the most points, they are the most valuable players. Yes, they do score the most points. However, we don't necessarily care about raw production when we're looking at the fantasy draft - we care about value; and yes there's a difference.

You're only required to start one quarterback on your fantasy team. There are 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL. If you're in a league with 11 other teams - well, you do the math. Even if you're the very last team to draft a quarterback, you're still getting no worse than the guy ranked 12th on your draft board! That's hardly a bad situation. Though quarterbacks do score more total fantasy points, the difference between the #1 guy and the #10 or #12 guy is rarely gigantic (2004 was an aberration), so you can afford to wait to draft a quarterback, as it is far from the most valuable position in fantasy football.

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No, that distinction belongs to running back. See, for a reason that's a bit unclear, most fantasy leagues require two starting running backs, though NFL teams only feature one (sure there's a fullback in the real NFL; but in terms of fantasy football, the fullback position is meaningless). So, you're in a situation where a 12-team fantasy league requires 24 starting running backs, yet there are only 32 teams in the NFL to provide starting running backs. Now, consider that 6-to-10 of those teams are going to use a running-back-by-committee system this year and not actually have a clear starter, and you've got a major problem. While there will be plenty of decent options at quarterback available after every team has taken one, the pool of running backs will get thin very, very fast; and if you don't take two early, you're in a world of trouble.

Therefore, regardless of where you are picking in your fantasy draft, select a running back first. There's just no way to recover from not doing so. Sure you can get lucky with a back selected later or a waiver wire pickup, but why rely on luck more than you need to? There will be quality players available at every position available later in the draft - every position except running back.


Fantasy Football Draft Strategies Part 2


Fantasy Football Draft Strategies Part 3


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by Mike Jones at 1800-sports.com on July 18, 2007


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