Football Bet - Finding Value in Less Popular Match-Ups

Football Bet - Finding Value in Less Popular Match-Ups by Mike Jones of 1800-Sports

What is the best football bet? In order to answer this question one must think like a bookmaker. The bookie will focus on games that are most appetizing to the general public. The least amount of attention will be paid to those match-ups appealing to the least amount of people. Less attractive markets help add to this component. That is not to say odds makers won't be on top of these football games, 1800-Sports.com just believes that the sports bettor does have a slight advantage when betting on them.

Let us now review the 2004 NFL football schedule and try to find the most boring games in any given week combined with a good number of marquee match-ups that will help draw attention away from your target football bet. Remember that no matter how bad one or two sides of a match-up might be perceived, sports bettors will always wager heavily on Sunday night and Monday night games, so we will eliminate them from the overall equation.

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In reviewing this schedule, it is important to know which teams will be perceived as slackers early on. We can only judge by early predictions and future odds set by bookmakers. As such, by Week 5 perceptions can change, so only the first four weeks will be analyzed as part of this example.

Among the cellar teams ideal for placing your football bet: Arizona (the perennial bad team), Detroit, San Diego, Houston, Cleveland, Chicago, Buffalo and New Orleans. To a lesser extent: Jacksonville and Cincinnati, but be careful here since these teams are likely to improve over last year.

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Our favorite match-ups to place a football bet on are:

Week One:

Jacksonville at Buffalo

Detroit at Chicago

San Diego at Houston - This is the one to focus on. Does Houston really deserve to be a -4 favorite?

Week Two:

Houston at Detroit

Week Three:

Does Not Apply

Week Four:

New Orleans at Arizona

Always remember, the general public cares little about these games above when they bet football and the fan base is somewhat dwindled in recent years as well (even when considering a formidable market such as Chicago). Since the general public does not care, the bookies won't either.

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Checkout our article about Football Bets.



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by Mike Jones at 1800-sports.com on January 25, 2006


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