When betting on the NBA, one of the best trends we follow is scheduling factors. Make sure to take into consideration the "4th game in 5 days" factor. Most people believe that this hurts a team rather than help it. However, when NBA betting this season, discounting the 4 games where "4 in 5" teams played each other, the team in their 4th game in 5 days is actually 28-27.
Although 28-27 is a losing record in handicapping terms one needs to look further to see that "4 in 5" favorites are 9-14 ATS, and "4 in 5" pick/dogs are 19-13 ATS.
This seems to be logical from a NBA betting and handicapping standpoint, as favorites in a 4th game in 5 days are just looking to survive and win the game and do not have the rest needed to pull off a rather large win. On the underdog side, it seems that the lines makers have taken this into consideration because they know that the handicapping public will be fading away
from dogs in their 4th game in 5 days, so they tend to inflate their number, hence giving considerable value for betting this side.
Based on this trend, we come up with a solid 60% angle in 2004 just by looking at the face of the "4 in 5" scheduling factor. PLAY on any pick/dog in a game involving a team in their 4th game in 5 days as long as there opponent is not in their 4th game in 5 days. That angle is 33-22 ATS this year, 60%.
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by Bobby Latrel at 1800-sports.com on January 24, 2006
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