NBA Finals: Heat favored at homeby Mark RothsteinToday on BetUSradio.com- Christopher Bennett for World Cup, David Friedman for NBA Finals and Ken Becks on the NFL, plus free plays...  O'Neal needs to shoot more We've seen the Miami Heat dominated in Dallas by the Mavericks. Can a change of scenery make a difference? The Heat are favored by four points heading into Game 3 of their best-of-seven championship series against the Mavs. This despite a tour de force by Dallas in Sunday's Game 2, when Dirk Nowitzki dumped 26 points and 16 rebounds on Miami, and the Mavs won 99-85 to open up a 2-0 series lead on the Heat. Dallas is also 2-0 against the spread in this series; the last time Miami bagged the cash against the Mavs was back in 2003. As successful as Nowitzki was in Game 2, the story of the series thus far is the struggling Shaquille O'Neal. Miami went into Sunday's matchup with the mandate of getting the Big Aristotle more touches in the paint. Instead, O'Neal was held to five points on 2-for-5 shooting, and was an appalling 1-for-7 from the free-throw line to drop his playoff percentage to 37.3. That's brick-tastic, even by Shaq standards (he was 47 percent from the charity stripe during the regular season). Unlike the Detroit Pistons in the previous round, the Mavs are wisely double-teaming O'Neal. Dwyane Wade hasn't been able to take advantage; his combined 17-for-44 shooting from the field in the first two games (38.6 percent, well below his usual 50 percent) suggests that Wade has yet to shake off the effects of the sinus infection that sent him to the hospital last week. Worse, other than defensively challenged Antoine Walker and his 37 points in this series, nobody is stepping up to help shoulder the scoring burden. At the other end of the floor, Nowitzki had a field day Sunday. Miami's defensive combo of Udonis Haslem and James Posey could not contain the 7-foot forward (although Posey did do a nice job drawing several charges against Dallas' penetrating guards). Haslem even came up with a strained left shoulder that forced the Miami native to take himself out of the game with 22 minutes remaining - adding insult to injury for one of the toughest players in the NBA. Haslem is expected to remain in the starting lineup for Tuesday's Game 3. But the Heat's problems with guarding Nowitzki pale in comparison to their ineffectiveness at the perimeter. Dallas hit open jumpers all day long Sunday, drilling 8 of 19 trey attempts. Jerry Stackhouse was 4-for-5 from long range as part of a 19-point performance. The Mavs' ability to balance Nowitzki's inside presence with this offensive barrage from outside spells potential doom for Miami. But there is hope in South Beach. The next three games are in Miami, and there is plenty of room for the Heat to improve. Wade should be in better shape physically - and he'd better be, because it's incumbent on the superstar swingman to put this team on his back like he did against Detroit. That's when O'Neal becomes truly dangerous. If Wade can draw the Dallas defense, he'll finally be able to get O'Neal those open touches Heat fans crave. Such a strategy might not be enough to actually beat the Mavs if the support players don't show up, but it maximizes Miami's chances. It also makes the OVER a tastier choice after the first two games easily slid UNDER the posted total. That total drops a shade from 189 in Game 2 to 188 in Game 3. Comments or Questions? Email FaceOff@BetUS.com. --- by BetUSradio at 1800-sports.com on June 13, 2006
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