NBA Finals Preview: Look For a Parade in South BeachBy Mike RothmanWagerWeb.com Contributing Writer For the first time in nearly a decade, there is no clear-cut favorite heading into the NBA Finals. The lack of a dominant team has made the 2006 playoffs one of the best in history, which should continue into the final round. The action starts Thursday night, as the Dallas Mavericks host the Miami Heat in Game 1. This series is a story of two first-time Finals participants and a matchup of a consistent team against one surging at the right time. The Mavericks, led by superstar Dirk Nowitzki, have been the essence of balance all season, finishing the regular season 60-22 and adding a top defense to their explosive offense.  On the other hand, the Heat struggled to find unity in the regular season and in the first four games of the playoffs, only to explode after that. Miami, 8-3 in the past two rounds, is a different team from the cast that was swept by the Mavericks in the regular season, including a 112-76 rout in Big D, and the Heat know their run is not over yet. "The job is not done. I only celebrate it when it's really over...the job is not done," Miami center Shaquille O'Neal said. "Four more wins, and we'll be all right." If anyone on the floor knows about the Finals, it's O'Neal. Shaq has been to the Finals five times, winning three rings with the Los Angeles Lakers. Miami coach Pat Riley also has plenty of experience in the championship round, winning the title four times and making the trip eight times. While the Heat have extensive Finals experience, the Mavericks are mostly constructed of first-timers. Dallas coach Avery Johnson, Nowitzki and most of the team have never been this far, but believe their consistency will prevail. "We've been a good team all season long, we believed in each other," Nowitzki said. "We went through some ups and downs this season, but the playoffs are all about showing heart and playing together." While the experience levels may differ between the teams, the paths to the Finals are similar. The Mavericks and Heat defeated past champions in the Spurs and Pistons, respectively, and both dispatched of their conference finals competition in six games. In the West finals, the Mavericks took care of the Phoenix Suns, led by reigning MVP Steve Nash. The story of this series was simply Dirk. His 50-point performance in Game 5 altered the course of the series. With Dallas down 77-70 in that game, Nowitzki said he felt the series slipping away and decided to take over the game, eventually leading to a 117-101 win. "We need to get some stops," Nowitzki told his teammates down by seven. "I'll shoot the ball, drive the ball, really, whatever we need to do to get the win." The Mavericks never looked back and closed out the Suns in Game 6, 102-93. In the East finals, the usual suspects took center stage. Through the first four games, the Pistons could not find an answer for Miami guard Dwyane Wade, who averaged nearly 70 percent shooting from the field and more than 27 points per game. When Wade came down with the flu in Game 6, Shaq put the franchise on his back with a 28-point, 16-rebound performance that sent the Pistons packing, 95-78. That ended Detroit's two-year reign as Eastern Conference champion. Here is an analysis of the Finals participants and who has the advantage: Center No matter what combination the Mavericks throw at the Heat, Shaq will have the advantage as long as he stays on the floor. O'Neal averaged just over 20 points a game during the playoffs, but posted three double-doubles against the Pistons and has shown signs of vintage Shaq as of late. O'Neal also averaged 65 percent from the field in the Detroit series. Dallas has Erick Dampier and DeSagana Diop to guard Shaq, which basically amounts to 12 fouls. Edge: Miami Forwards This is where Dallas kills a team. The Mavericks' combination of Nowitzki and Josh Howard is too much for most teams to handle. Nowitzki is a 7-footer who can get a shot off at any time and is averaging 28.4 points and 11.9 rebounds a game in the playoffs. Howard is a versatile forward who moves like a guard and exploded against Phoenix for almost 20 points per game. The Miami trio of James Posey, Udonis Haslem and Antoine Walker won't keep pace with these two. Edge: Dallas Guards This is the position that could make or break the series for either team. Miami's Wade is clearly the star, averaging just over 26 points in the playoffs. But Dallas can counter with Jason Terry and Devin Harris. Terry is a proven veteran who made clutch shot after clutch shot against the Spurs, and Harris is a young point guard with Jason Kidd potential. This one's close, but Wade gives the Heat the advantage. Edge: Miami. Coaching The players on the court aren't everything. Coaching and experience can win a series for a team. In this case, the Heat get the nod. Riley's resume speaks for itself. He's a Hall of Fame coach with four championships, and this is his ninth trip to the Finals, with his third team. Dallas' Johnson can't make that claim. Edge: Miami. While the homecourt advantage and better record belong to the Mavericks, I can't pick against the Heat. Miami has one of the most dominant players of our era in Shaq, and he's hungry for another (post-Kobe) championship. O'Neal has gone as far as to say he paced himself during the regular season to save energy for the Finals. If that's true, watch out Dallas. Both teams will have terrible matchup problems, but O'Neal and Wade may be too much to handle. More important, Riley's offseason additions are finally paying off. Walker is playing like the all-star he was in Boston, and point guard Jason Williams went 5-for-5 from the field in the first half of Game 6 against Detroit. The right players are just stepping up at the right time for the Heat, and they are playing like a championship team. Dallas will make sure this series does come down to the wire, however. Heat in seven --- by Mike Rothman at WagerWeb.com on June 09, 2006
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