NFL Football Betting - The Home Field Advantage

Just how important is the home field advantage with NFL football betting? Consider that the home teams have won approximately 60 percent of all games straight up. In order to offset this number, most lines makers adjust the home advantage by three points. That 60 percent comes down a bit when looking at results against the spread, but sports bettors still maintain an edge.

The key here is to build your own home field advantage into the NFL football betting equation based on various stats and match up histories. It is especially important to use scores of past games to create the proper line (this includes past games vs. the opponent and recent home games against other teams).

Importance of a game to a good home team is one of the most vital components to look at in NFL football betting.

Teams that are out of contention for the playoffs late in the season should receive no additional home field advantage.

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For some teams, there may not be sellouts and the home town fans could have already begun turning on their team towards season's end. This is going to make for a hostile home team advantage. Thus, the three point differential in creating a line might not apply in this scenario either.

With NFL football betting, the second half of a season seems to play a greater role in determining any type of strategy where the home field advantage is concerned. By now you have a feel of which teams are very good, the average teams and the bad teams. Sports bettors may consider adding a point or two to the home field advantage with a very good team depending on the opponent. Likewise, sports bettors might not add home field points to a sub par home team.

Early in the NFL betting season (first two or three weeks) I would look at such factors as perceived value coupled with local opinions and any rumblings of dissention in the locker room. Sometimes pre season games help determine opening lines for the regular season, however, I would steer clear of placing too much emphasis on pre season results.

Here are some other very important factors to review when deriving at a home team's advantage:

Grass vs. Turf - There are some teams notorious for playing bad on one or the other. The home team, by default, will play well on its home field surface so sports bettors need only review past history of the opponent's capacity to play on said surface.

Weather - You simply cannot underestimate weather factors when it comes to NFL football betting and throughout the season, especially as we inch closer to the cold winters up north, We will continue to reinforce this vital component and we have written an article specifically about this subject (checkout our article titled Exploring How Weather Affects Football Betting). Some sports bettors, when analyzing weather, have a tendency to neglect the month of September, when playing in the intense heat of Miami and a few other Sunbelt states do dramatically impact games and especially impact NFL football betting. I've spoken to a few professional football players who point this out time and time again. The Miami Dolphins traditionally start off well and fizzle.....Could this be related to the weather? Well, that takes me to the next scenario, one we all seem cognizant of the cold.

It's not just about freezing a player's butt off, it's also about ball handling and any NFL football player will tell you the pig skin just doesn't handle right in bone chilling dry air. Warm weather teams will be at a terrible disadvantage. A cold weather home team, no matter how bad they might be, hosting a warm weather visiting team with temperatures of 32 degrees or less must always receive at least a 3 point differential in the line. Tampa played for years without winning a game in sub freezing temperatures. They ultimately became the brunt of many jokes and the sports bettors usually were the one's laughing all the way to the bank.

Remember there are also teams that do not fare well on the road. Entering one of the more hostile stadiums is bound to give the visiting team an even greater disadvantage and this should be noted in your NFL football betting plan of attack.

In closing, sports bettors also need to review the past three years of home team stats. Some teams enjoy near perfect records playing at home and if performance levels are anticipated to be the same or better, such stats must be considered pivotal. Years ago when I was betting NFL football, the teams that stood out as home team pillars were Kansas City, Green Bay and New England.

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If you want to visit more sports betting sites make sure to check out our article on NFL Betting Line.

--- by Mike Jones at 1800-sports.com on January 25, 2006

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