Belmont Stakes, And the Winner Is. . .By D.S WilliamsonOkay, so I've gone over this race about a hundred times already and guess what? I didn't pick Big Brown to win. There are a few reasons for that. First, I'm not convinced about the hoof. Sure, I understand that Ian McKinlay, the super-doc who makes Gregory House look like an intern, says that Big Brown should have no issue with his hoof and that this is the same guy who got River Keen ready to win a graded race for Bob Baffert some years ago, but let's be honest. A cracked hoof, no matter what any super-vet says, is not that easy to fix. If it were, there would be a lot of horses still on the track these days. The bottom line is that nobody except Big Brown knows how big of an issue the hoof is. And since Big Brown doesn't have the ability to speak, at least Richard Dutrow hasn't said so yet, I have to take the hoof into account when handicapping this race. How big of an issue is the hoof? It's a huge issue. But that doesn't mean that Big Brown isn't the best horse since 1978 capable of winning the Triple Crown. For the quickest and easiest depositing methods available, sign-up today at BetUS.com, "for over 14 years they have been the Pioneers and World-wide Leaders in Online Sports, Poker, Casino and Racebook Gaming!" Always receive great odds, huge bonuses and fast payouts only at BetUS.com! BET ON FOOTBALL! Deposit $300 and get $100 in Bonuses! Let me change that - - Big Brown is the best horse capable of winning the Triple Crown since Spectacular Big in 1980. The also-rans, which include such luminaries as Charismatic, Funny Cide and Smarty Jones, were good horses, but Big Brown has the requisite speed, quality and, supposedly, guts to get him through a race like the 1 mile Belmont Stakes with a cracked hoof. Then again, so did Spectacular Bid and that guy, who would have beaten Big Brown by probably ten to fifteen lengths in the Kentucky Derby, was hurt before the Belmont Stakes...just like Big Brown. A needle in a haystack, literally, did him in. Will the cracked hoof do Big Brown in? I have to go with yes for two reasons. First, if this were a six furlong race, then I wouldn't worry about it but this is a 1 mile grueling test around two sweeping turns in front of around 120,000 screaming people. The longer the race goes, and there's none longer then the Belmont Stakes for horses like Big Brown, the more chances that the hoof will cause an issue. Think of a fire that at first feels warm and great and then, the longer you stay close, starts to burn your skin. That's what could very well happen to Big Brown. Now, if he's challenged early, then things get even worse for him. As good of a trainer as Richard Dutrow is and as good of a jockey as Kent Desormeaux is, Big Brown is going to have to do the running on his own. Who knows what he feels regarding the foot? Nobody. That's who. Not even Richard Dutrow who sometimes thinks his horse has the ability to sprout wings. In any case I can't take a horse at 1 to 5 in the Belmont Stakes as it is, I learned my lesson with Smarty Jones, much less at 1 to 5 with a cracked hoof. It's just not in my nature as an online racebook handicapper which means that I've got to look elsewhere. Where? I'm glad you all silently asked! I've gotten my picks down to five different horses. I haven't settled on my winning bet, you'll have to wait until Friday morning for that, but I do feel that all five of these horses, after Big Brown and based on different scenarios, have a chance to win the 2008 Belmont Stakes. Top Four Upset Chances 1. Casino Drive - - Obvious, right? Well, that doesn't mean that I shouldn't pick him! Big Brown will not scratch which means the odds on Casino Drive will be roughly 2 to 1 or 5 to 2...hopefully. I love this guy. He's about as well-bred, going back three or four generations, as any horse I've seen in a very long, long, long time. Forget it. Even with a healthy Big Brown, I'd be picking this guy on top. His professional run in the Peter Pan Stakes was the most impressive 3-year old race of the year. He will probably be my pick on Friday morning unless I get really ballsy and decide to hit a home-run. 2. Tale of Ekati - - The gods of horse racing betting have a tendency to make amends. They really stuck it to trainer Barclay Tagg and Funny Cide in 2003 when the track came up muddy and Funny decided to over train just a few days before the Belmont. In a way, it gave Tagg some excuses. Nobody was going to beat Empire Maker. But that doesn't mean that Tagg doesn't get some measure of revenge on the Triple Crown experts this year by taking down Big Brown by this well-bred, quickly improving son of Tale of the Cat. Tagg knows what he's doing. This horse could upset at a price. 3. Denis of Cork - - His run up the rail in the Kentucky Derby was sneaky good. More importantly, he has the same form going into the Belmont that Birdstone did going into his Belmont victory in 2004. That means that Denis of Cork might be ready to uncork a serious run. If Casino Drive challenges Big Brown early, couldn't Dutrow's horse forget all about this little guy? 4. Ready's Echo - - Talk about under the radar? While Casino Drive was blitzing the entire Peter Pan field this guy was making a nice run under jockey John Velasquez. Velasquez is a brilliant rider, Todd Pletcher is the best horse trainer in the world, this guy comes out of More Than Ready and a Kingmambo mare. That means that he could pretty much run any way he wants. If he shows more speed, and JV almost certainly might get him to do it, who says he doesn't improve in the Belmont Stakes? 5. Icabad Crane - - I love betting on 3-year olds that start hitting their peak around Belmont Stakes time! This guy could after winning a minor stakes and then finishing third in the Preakness. I've also got a man-crush on Graham Motion, his trainer, because the guy keeps producing winners. Icabad Crane has the goods to do some damage to Big Brown's Triple Crown quest come June 7th. --- by BetUS at 1800-sports.com on June 06, 2008
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