Boxing Betting Odds Picks: Pacquiao vs Cotto WBO Welterweight Title Pacquiao vs Cotto WBO Welterweight Title Manny Pacquiao vs Miguel Cotto WBO Welterweight Championship Bout Boxing betting odds picks and boxing predictions; Despite the fact that Manny Pacquiao (-300 to win in the BetUS boxing betting odds) is the fighter considered by most to be either the #1 or #2 fighter in the mythical "pound-for-pound" category, please keep in mind that this fight is for Miguel Angel Cotto's WBO welterweight title. I would suspect that the winner is going to be in for an even bigger prize; when all is said and done, there will probably be a fight with Floyd Mayweather Jr. on the horizon. BetUS Boxing Betting Odds: WBO Welterweight Title (12 rds. - 147 lbs.) - November 14 -- Las Vegas Manny Pacquiao --- -300 Miguel Cotto --- +220 Under 9.5 Rounds --- -145 Over 9.5 Rounds --- +115 When Pacquiao moves up in weight, as he's doing here, I guess it is natural to ask whether he is biting off more than he can chew. We seem to have had these discussions almost every time he fights, and invariably he has answered those questions in the most resounding way. This is a fighter who started his career at 106 pounds, which is one pound over the straw-weight limit, and he is now campaigning at 147, having already beaten up on Oscar De La Hoya in that weight class. So it is all a bit scary. JAY'S PLAYS: PACQUIAO TO WIN (-300) **** and UNDER 9.5 ROUNDS (-145) ** (Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars) At some point, you would figure Pacquiao would just lose all power and be mosquito-like to his opponent, but that hasn't been the case. The blitzkrieg of De La Hoya was sensational. The destruction of Ricky Hatton sent shockwaves through the entire sports world. One knows he couldn't go on forever moving up in weight, but I am not detecting a loss of power as of yet. Pacquiao has talent, without question, but that is not what makes him as successful as he is. He is not so much a fighter of incredible talent or technical ability as he is a fighter of incredible fury. News item: fury, when applied correctly, often trumps most everything else. Check out Bovada and start winning NOW! Bovada Sportsbook, Casino, Poker Room & Racebook is known in the online gambling industry for having phenomenal customer service, safe and secure deposit methods, fast & easy payouts and terrific bonuses! BET on Sports & play Poker at BOVADA and receive a 20% FREE BET on your first deposit! That is, however, unless the opponent is so technically proficient that he is able to slow down the pace and force Pacquiao to assume the boxer's role himself and wait for the opponent to pick him off, or worse yet, force him into a pattern of sleepwalking around the ring. Erik Morales, who had some boxing skills, was able to do some of that the first time he fought Pacquiao, and it was the one fight in the trilogy he was able to win. Could that same thing be the case with Cotto? We'll take the long way around in answering that one. I have been around this game for a long time, and I can tell you that Top Rank did a great job in promoting Cotto (+200 in the BetUS odds) as someone who they could turn into a Latin hero like Oscar De La Hoya, who they lost. Cotto has come a long way in that regard, but I have never thought he was the real thing, relative to becoming another De La Hoya or a true contender for "pound-for-pound" honors. Early on, you could see that there were some things at which Cotto was well advanced; for example, he had a left hook combination to the body and head that was the envy of even seasoned professionals. The problem with it was that the opponent had to be literally standing in front of him for him to execute it. Over the course of time he developed, of course, but Cotto often found himself troubled when the opponent was able to move side-to-side, and I mean ANY opponent. As a result, he didn't face too many guys who were able to do that. For most of the early part of his career, he was matched up very well by Bruce Trampler (the Top Rank matchmaker). Of course, that's the job of a "house" matchmaker when he is working with a "house" fighter - to make him look good without making the fights look too ridiculous. These days, one can not only be "steered" to a championship but be steered even beyond that, and that is not an unfair characterization of what has happened with Miguel Cotto. Early in his career, Cotto played the part of the aggressor, the stalker, the destroyer, and that is much easier to do when your opponent does not have the artillery to fight back with much firepower. At some point, however, the chin must be tested, and that has been where Cotto's had some hairy moments. One of the most stunning of these moments came against DeMarcus Corley (a southpaw like Pacquiao) who was by no means a banger, nailed Cotto on the button and had him flopping around all over the place. That isn't the only time it's happened. Notably, Ricardo Torres had him staggered too, and just didn't have enough to finish him. Sure, Cotto's supporters will point out that he won those fights, but this offers evidence that when a foe CAN finish, Cotto is going to be in trouble. Also note that I'm not even bringing up the Margarito fight - the guys I've referred to were 140-pounders, and no - fighters' chins aren't known to improve as their career progresses, whether they drop in weight or move up. There isn't a whole lot you can do in the gym to "work" on you chin, aside from building up neck muscles. Either you can take a shot or you can't. It's a funny thing - Hector Camacho was not only super-slick, but much more aggressive when he was a young champion, and he rarely got hit. Then one night he got hit square on the chin by Edwin Rosario, and his whole career changed after that. He became much more of a "safety-first" fighter. I imagine the same thing has happened to an extent with Cotto. In some of his recent fights he has sometimes gone in there with a strategy to move around the ring and try to sneak in shots. of course, some announcers will call him a "boxer" when he does this, but what he's really doing is running. Don't get me wrong; he's talented enough to get away with that against most fighters, but it's not going to happen against the very good ones. It didn't happen against Margarito, who ate him up eventually and would have whether his hands were "loaded" up or not. It's not going to happen against Manny Pacquiao. Running around and trying to box is just not a natural thing for Cotto to do. Cotto is an aggressor by nature and that is the way he is most effective. You are simply not going to do something that isn't your "best work" and beat a Manny Pacquiao. Here's the rub - if he stands there and bangs his vulnerability (i.e., his chin) is going to be vulnerable and that won't turn out nicely for him either, because he WILL get hit. So you see, he's between a rock and a hard place, and may eventually find a soft place to land. Pacquiao would do well to stay around 14 pounds, as he did against De La Hoya. He's not going to gain power just by putting on pounds, and with him, it's his speed that is going to generate power anyway. He's too fast for Cotto, and at the same time he's got the angles that will confuse Cotto, who can be very mechanical. Maybe the guy sleepwalking here will be the "champion." He'll get nailed sooner or later, and that will be the beginning of the end for him, because Pacquiao is one fighter who understands how to finish a guy. I like Pacquiao, the -300 favorite in the BetUS boxing betting odds, and I might even look for this fight to end early, laying -145 on the "under," which is posted at 9.5 rounds. JAY'S PLAYS: PACQUIAO TO WIN (-300) **** and UNDER 9.5 ROUNDS (-145) ** (Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars) --- by Charles Jay at Bodog.com on November 13, 2009
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