NCAA Tournament Preview: South Region

March 18, 2008

By Jason Brough
Bodog Nation Contributing Writer



Two-man shows are the rule in the wide-open South region


Talk about a wild-card region. The top seed hails from a mid-major conference and can't hit free throws. No. 2 lost its best player after last season and the third seed has dropped three of its last five. Oh, and let's assume Texas Arlington has drawbacks too.


Inside Story

The Memphis Attack. True, the No. 1 Memphis Tigers (33-1) are members of Conference USA, not the toughest pack in the land. But that's not to say coach John Calipari's squad played an easy schedule. The Tigers - who lost one game all season, to Tennessee - beat a handful of NCAA tournament teams, including Connecticut, Georgetown, Oklahoma, USC, Arizona and Gonzaga.

While Memphis did better than hold its own against traditional powerhouses, it absolutely destroyed its C-USA brethren. The Tigers finished their conference slate with five straight victories by 17, 38, 19, 16 and 26 points. However - and this is for the bettors - the Tigers covered the spread in just two of those five games, testament to the respect they receive from oddsmakers. In fact, Memphis is just 4-10 against the number in its last 14, even though 13 were outright victories.


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March Madness 2008

Odds to win the South region
Team (Seed) Odds
Memphis (1) 5/4
Texas (2) 3/1
Stanford (3) 7/2
Pittsburgh (4) 8/1
Michigan State (5) 12/1
Marquette (6) 12/1
Miami (7) 22/1
Mississippi State (8) 28/1
Oregon (9) 28/1
Saint Mary's (10) 22/1
Kentucky (11) 35/1
Temple (12) 80/1
Oral Roberts (13) 100/1
Cornell (14) 200/1
Austin Peay (15) 300/1
Texas Arlington (16) 300/1


The Tigers are led offensively by junior Chris Douglas-Roberts and freshman Derrick Rose, two of the best guards in the nation who combined to average over 31 points per game. Doing the hard work is forward Joey Dorsey, a 6-foot-9-inch, 265-pound forward who was good for 9.6 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game.

Stacked as the team may be, if there's one area where Memphis comes up short, it's free-throw shooting. The Tigers are hitting just 59.6 percent of their freebies with Rose leading the way at a modest 69.6 percent. On the low end - the really low end - Dorsey is converting at just 39.3 percent from the charity stripe.

Memphis also isn't the only side in the South region with a killer duo. No. 2 Texas has D.J. Augustin and A.J. Abrams, two guards who combined for 35.9 points per game this season.

Indeed, Kevin Durant might have left for the NBA, but that didn't stop the Longhorns from winning their first 11 games without him. Granted, after that, there were some hiccups. The 'Horns (28-6) had two losses to non-tourney teams in the new year - a 97-84 defeat at Missouri on Jan. 12 and an 83-80 loss at Texas Tech on March 1 - and of all the top 10 teams in the ESPN/USA Today poll released on March 18, only Texas has dropped six games. In other words, an early exit is not out of the question for the Longhorns. And neither is a Final Four appearance.

No. 3 Stanford has a couple guys who play well together, too. It probably helps that they're twins. Brook and Robin Lopez are a couple of 7-footers who can dominate at both ends of the court. Brook is the team's leading scorer - he averaged 19.9 points per game versus his brother's 10.0 - but Robin came on as the season progressed, reaching double digits in points in eight of his last 10 games.

The Cardinal did drop three of its last five, two to UCLA and the other to USC, but there's little need to panic. In the last two weeks, Stanford also beat tourney teams Washington State (twice) and Arizona.


Now that the Madness has arrived, check out the 2008 March Madness predictions and start filling out your NCAA March Madness Bracket!


Bracket Buster

Watch out for No. 10 Saint Mary's, who we profiled as a possible Cinderella in late February. The Gaels are plenty rested considering they haven't played since March 9 when they lost to eventual West Coast Conference tournament winner San Diego. If they can get past struggling Miami in the first round, the erratic Longhorns await and so too does a potential upset.


Best Bet

Temple +6.5 over Michigan State: The Owls have won seven straight and loom as one of those dastardly No. 12 seeds for the No. 5 Spartans.


X-Factor

Tradition. Specifically, the No. 11 Kentucky Wildcats, one of the most storied schools in college basketball history. New coach Billy Gillespie got off to a dismal start in Lexington, dropping nine of his first 16, including a shocking defeat to Gardner-Webb. But the 'Cats turned it around big time and won 11 of their last 14 to snatch a tourney bid. SEC Freshman of the Year Patrick Patterson is out for the season, and that hurts, but senior guards Ramel Bradley and Joe Crawford are more than capable of sparking an upset of Marquette and possibly others. Simply put, when you play for Kentucky, you expect to win.


Watch These Guys

For Memphis: the aforementioned Derrick Rose. He's only a freshman but that hasn't stopped him from being a leader on the court. Teammates often speak of his ability to pick the team up when it's down, one of the many reasons Rose is likely to be playing in the NBA next year.

For Mississippi State: Jarvis Varnado. This guy is a shot-blocking machine. On three separate occasions this season, he racked up 10 swats in a single game.


Headed to the Sweet 16

Memphis, Stanford, Pittsburgh and - what the hell - Saint Mary's.




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by Bodog at 1800-sports.com on March 21, 2008


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