US Open Preview
By Rich Carlson
wagerweb.com Contributing Writer
The final Grand Slam tournament of the 2006 tennis season kicks off on Monday as the world's top players descend on the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center for the United States Open. All eyes will be on Roger Federer and Amelie Mauresmo, as both players attempt to win their third Grand Slam tournament of the year.
Let's take a closer look at the title contenders, sleepers and long shots in the men's and women's draws.
* Overall records are as of 8/21/06
Click here for the 2007 US Open Odds.
Men's Draw
Contenders
Roger Federer - Switzerland
Tournament seed: #1
2006 overall record: 63-5
2006 hard court record: 35-2
Best US Open finish: Winner - 2004, 2005
WagerWeb.com odds to win the title: -200
After losing in the finals of the French Open, King Roger once again confirmed his dominance of men's tennis with an impressive victory at Wimbledon. However, he is entering this year's US Open on a bit of a downer, as his 55-match winning streak on North American hard courts was stopped in the 2nd round of the ATP Masters Series tournament in Cincinnati by Andy Murray. Federer's opponents should not put much stock in this loss, however, as he was playing his 12th match in 13 days and simply ran out of gas. Federer is the two-time defending U.S. Open champion, and is the man to beat.
Andy Roddick - United States
Tournament seed: #9
2006 overall record: 38-13
2006 hard court record: 25-7
Best US Open finish: Winner - 2003
WagerWeb.com odds to win the title: +900
After a very disappointing start to his 2006 campaign, Roddick brought on tennis legend Jimmy Connors to try and turn his game around, and it appears to be working. Roddick is being much more aggressive on the court, and his attacking style has his opponents on the run once again. Roddick won the ATP Master Series tournament in Cincinnati in impressive fashion, dropping only one set in the tournament. With his blistering serve and ferocious groundstrokes, Roddick has the power to dominate on the fast courts at Flushing Meadows, and with his confidence returning, Roddick is a threat to reach the finals.
Sleepers
Fernando Gonzalez - Chile
Tournament seed: #10
2006 overall record: 36-17
2006 hard court record: 16-8
Best US Open finish: Quarterfinals - 2002
WagerWeb.com odds to win the title: +5900
When looking for favorites at a Grand Slam, you should look for players who have played consistently well in the warm-up events leading up to the Grand Slam. Gonzalez currently sits second in the US Open Series rankings, which shows he has been a consistent player during the hard court season. In his last four hard court tournaments, Gonzalez has reached the semifinals three times and the quarterfinals once. Gonzalez is a dangerous No. 10 seed who the other seeded players want to avoid.
James Blake - United States
Tournament seed: #5
2006 overall record: 40-18
2006 hard court record: 29-9
Best US Open finish: Quarterfinals - 2005
WagerWeb.com odds to win the title: +2000
When you look at Blake's 2006 hard court season, it is either feast or famine, and the question many tennis experts are asking is: Which James Blake will show up? The Blake who won hard court tournaments in Sydney, Las Vegas and Indianapolis, or the Blake who lost in the 1st round of hard court tournaments at San Jose, Memphis, and lost in the 2nd round at Adelaide, Toronto and Cincinnati? When Blake is playing with confidence, he has the power and speed to take on anybody, and the fast courts in New York are definitely suited to his game. Blake could easily go deep into the second week of the tournament, or he could be one of the first seeds to lose. Neither result would surprise me at all.
Andy Murray - Great Britain
Tournament seed: #17
2006 overall record: 32-20
2006 hard court record: 22-10
Best US Open finish: 2nd round - 2005
WagerWeb.com odds to win the title: +2000
Another player who has performed very well in the US Open Series tournaments is the young Brit Murray. Murray won the hard court tournament in San Jose, beating Lleyton Hewitt in the finals, and lost in the finals of the Washington D.C. tournament. Murray is also the player who ended Roger Federer's 55-match winning streak on North American hard courts, as he beat Federer in the second round of the tournament in Cincinnati. Murray's confidence has been steadily increasing, and he has shown he is a force to be reckoned with.
Rafael Nadal - Spain
Tournament seed: #2
2006 overall record: 48-7
2006 hard court record: 17-5
Best US Open finish: 3rd round - 2005
WagerWeb.com odds to win the title: +260
Rafa has shown that he can win on hard courts, as he won the hard court title in Dubai early in 2006, beating Federer in the finals. However, Nadal has not had much luck on the faster hard courts, as he has a harder time dealing with the power and pace of his opponents. Nadal was thoroughly overpowered by Tomas Berdych in the round of 16 at Toronto, losing 6-1, 3-6, 6-2, and followed that up with a quarterfinal loss in Cincinnati to Juan Carlos Ferrero. Nadal's marvelous ability to play defensive tennis and retrieve a lot of balls will not be nearly as effective on the slick hard courts at Flushing Meadows, so he will need to step up his level of aggressiveness.
Marcos Baghdatis - Cyprus
Tournament seed: #8
2006 overall record: 29-15
2006 hard court record: 14-8
Best US Open finish: 2nd round - 2004
WagerWeb.com odds to win the title: (Field) +2800
Baghdatis' coming out party occurred at this year's Australian Open, as he made a magical run to the finals, where he was eventually defeated by Roger Federer. Baghdatis put on a brilliant display of court movement and shotmaking on his way to the finals, and he has all the shots required to be a force on hard courts. His recent form on hard courts has been disappointing, however, as he lost in the first round at Toronto, and in the third round at Cincinnati and New Haven. If he can put his game back together in time for the Open, he could make some serious noise in the men's draw.
Tommy Haas - Germany
Tournament seed: #14
2006 overall record: 39-15
2006 hard court record: 28-7
Best US Open finish: Quarterfinals - 2004
WagerWeb.com odds to win the title: +4300
With three hard court tournament titles under his belt, Haas is a very dangerous No. 14 seed. Haas won the Delray Beach, Memphis and Los Angeles hard court tournaments, and should not be overlooked. Haas might have peaked too early, however, as he followed up his victory at Los Angeles with a second-round loss in Toronto and a third round loss in Cincinnati. Don't be shocked if Haas makes his way to the second week of the tournament.
Long Shots
Dmitry Tursunov - Russia
Tournament seed: Unseeded
2006 overall record: 34-24
2006 hard court record: 28-13
Best US Open finish: 3rd round - 2003
WagerWeb.com odds to win the title: +7100
Tursunov is currently 4th in the US Open Series rankings and is a definite dark horse at this year's tournament. He reached the finals of the Los Angeles hard court tournament, losing to Tommy Haas, and lost in the semifinals of the Washington D.C. tournament to Andy Murray. With a little luck, Tursunov could find himself playing in the second week.
Richard Gasquet - France
Tournament seed: #25
2006 overall record: 22-17
US Open career record: 7-8
Best US Open finish: Round of 16 - 2005
WagerWeb.com odds to win the title: +2000
During the 2006 season, Gasquet has played like that little boy in the nursery rhyme: when he's good, he's very good -- when he's bad, he's awful. Gasquet was at his best during the ATP Master Series tournament in Toronto, where he beat Andy Murray, James Blake and Tomas Berdych on his way to the finals, where he ultimately lost to Roger Federer in three sets. On the flip side, Gasquet has an overall hard court record of 7-8 and followed up his run to the Toronto finals by flaming out in the first round at Cincinnati to Tommy Robredo. If Gasquet is on, he can be very dangerous. But if he's not ...
Players To Watch
Mark Philippoussis (Australia), Gael Monfils (France) - Philippoussis reached the US Open finals in 1998 but is playing in this year's tournament as a wild card. With his big serve, Scud is always a dangerous opponent. Monfils is an athletic freak of nature who can chase down balls forever. As the 27th seed, Monfils should not be taken lightly.
Players To Avoid
Andre Agassi (United States) -- Yes, its going to be an emotional tournament for the Agassi camp as he plays in his last tournament before his retirement. However, he is still recovering from hip and back injuries, and doesn't have the fitness level or match play he needs to repeat his 2005 run to the Open finals.
Ivan Ljubicic (Croatia) -- Ljubicic is the No. 4 seed in the men's draw, and he took Roger Federer to three sets in the Miami tournament finals. However, Ivan has a horrible record at the US Open, managing to make it past the second round only once in seven tries. Until he proves he can win in New York, stay away.
David Nalbandian (Argentina) -- After reaching the semifinals at the Australian Open and the Miami hard court tournament, Nalbandian's hard court play has dropped off considerably. He was destroyed in the first round of the hard court tournament in Toronto by David Sanguinetti 6-1, 6-2, and lost in the second round at Cincinnati. If only the US Open was played the spring...
Click here for the 2006 US Open Odds.
Women's Draw
Contenders
Amelie Mauresmo - France
Tournament seed: #1
2006 overall record: 37-8
2006 hard court record: 11-2
Best US Open finish: Semifinals 2002
WagerWeb.com odds to win the title: +705
Mauresmo has firmly established herself as the top 1 player in the women's game with victories at this year's Australian Open and Wimbledon. She loves coming to Flushing Meadows, having reached the semifinals in 2002 and the quarterfinals three other times. However, she comes into this year's Open a little nicked up, as she was forced to withdraw from the hard court tournament in Montreal with a right shoulder strain. Mauresmo came back to play in the New Haven warm-up tournament, but lost in the semifinals to Lindsay Davenport. Mauresmo has always had the athleticism and shots to win major tournaments, but her mental toughness was always questioned. With her two major titles this year, her mental toughness can no longer be challenged. If her shoulder can hold up for the entire two weeks, Mauresmo is a good bet to reach the finals.
Justine Henin-Hardenne - Belgium
Tournament seed: #2
2006 overall record: 44-6
2006 hard court record: 15-3
Best US Open finish: Winner - 2003
WagerWeb.com odds to win the title: +305
Henin-Hardenne is having another solid season in 2006, boasting a 44-6 match record, including her victory at Roland Garros. Henin-Hardenne has posted a 15-3 on hard courts so far this year, and always fares very well at the US Open, which she won in 2003. Like Mauresmo, Henin-Hardenne has struggled with some injuries this summer, and her match fitness and match play levels could come into question. If she is fully recovered from her knee injury, expect to see Henin-Hardenne playing deep into the second week of the tournament.
Maria Sharapova - Russia
Tournament Seed: #3
2006 overall record: 40-8
2006 hard court record: 24-3
Best US Open finish: Semifinals - 2005
WagerWeb.com odds to win the title: +325
Sharapova has been an absolute monster during the hard court season in 2006, posting a 24-3 match record with three titles (Indian Wells, Miami and San Diego). She also reached the semifinals of the Los Angeles warm-up tournament and is in fine form coming into this year's US Open. Sharapova's sneaky first serve and heavy groundstrokes are custom made for the fast hard courts, and she is a major threat to win the tournament. Sharapova loves to play in front of big crowds, and there are no bigger, more enthusiastic crowds than at Flushing Meadows. With her confidence riding high from her three hard court titles, do not bet against Sharapova to win the tournament.
Svetlana Kuznetsova - Russia
Tournament seed: #6
2006 overall record: 41-13
2006 hard court record: 14-3
Best US Open finish: Winner - 2004
WagerWeb.com odds to win the title: +1615
The 2004 US Open champion, Kuznetsova has experienced another solid hard court season in 2006, winning the Miami tournament and reaching the quarterfinals in Montreal. Kuznetsova came out of nowhere to win the 2004 championship, but she won't be overlooked in this tournament. With her steady play and wide variety of shots, Kuznetsova is a legitimate contender for the title.
Elena Dementieva - Russia
Tournament seed: #4
2006 overall record: 38-13
2006 hard court record: 14-4
Best US Open finish: Finalist - 2004
WagerWeb.com odds to win the title: +1525
Dementieva is coming into the 2006 US Open on a roll, having lost in the finals of the Indian Wells tournament, winning the Los Angeles tournament, and reaching the quarterfinals of the New Haven tournament. Dementieva's game is pure power from both wings, which plays very well on the fast Open courts. The only drawback to Dementieva's game is her shaky serve, which is always vulnerable to attack. If Dementieva can cut down on her double faults and minimize her service breaks, she could repeat her 2004 run to the finals.
Sleepers
Martina Hingis - Switzerland
Tournament seed: #8
2006 overall record: 43-14
2006 hard court record: 19-7
Best US Open finish: Winner 1997
WagerWeb.com odds to win the title: +2250
Hingis has continued her amazing comeback to women's tennis with a solid hard court season. After reaching the quarterfinals of the Australian Open in January, she reached the semifinals at Indian Wells, the quarterfinals at San Diego, and the finals at Montreal. One of the questions surrounding Hingis' return would be if she could contend with the increase in power of the women's game. This question was raised again during the finals of the Montreal tournament, where Hingis was blown off the court 6-1, 6-2 by Ana Ivanovic. Hingis had no answer for Ivanovic's powerful groundstrokes, and tennis fans are wondering if that match was an aberration for Hingis or not. Only time will tell.
Ana Ivanovic - Serbia and Montenegro
Tournament seed: #16
2006 overall record: 29-13
2006 hard court record: 19-6
Best US Open finish: 2nd round - 2005
WagerWeb.com odds to win the title: (Field) +605
Ivanovic stormed to the top of the US Open Series rankings after an impressive hard court season, in which she reached the quarterfinals of the Los Angeles tournament and won the tournament in Montreal. Ivanovic was truly at the top of her game in the Montreal finals, as she easily disposed of Martina Hingis 6-1, 6-2. Ivanovic also sports a victory over Amelie Mauresmo at the Sydney hard court tournament, so she has quickly proven she can play with the top players in the women's game. She gained a lot of confidence and momentum after her victory at Los Angeles, and could be a major factor in the second week of the tournament.
Serena Williams - United States
Tournament seed: unseeded
2006 overall record: 9-3
2006 hard court record: 9-3
Best US Open finish: Winner - 1999, 2002
WagerWeb.com odds to win the title: +1525
Serena is just now coming back from injury, and has only played 12 matches the entire 2006 season. She has reached the semifinals at two hard court events: Cincinnati and Los Angeles. As Williams gets more matches under her belt, her fitness will improve and her confidence will grow. If Williams is able to reach the second week of the tournament without spending a lot of time on the court, she could be a factor down the stretch. It might be a little much to ask of Serena at this point, but you can never rule Serena out of any tournament she plays in.
Players to Watch
Dinara Safina (Russia) +605 (Field) -- Seeded No. 12, Safina's best US Open results came in 2003 when she reached the 4th round. Safina is one of the most improved players on the WTA Tour, and she could pose some problems for the higher seeded players in her draw.
Nicole Vaidisova (Czech Republic) +1815 -- Seeded No. 9, Vaidisova currently stands 5th in the US Open Series rankings. She reached the semifinals at the hard court tournaments at Stanford and San Diego, but was forced to withdraw from the Montreal tournament with right shoulder tendinitis. If Vaidisova is healthy, she's a good bet to reach the second week.
Players to Avoid
Nadia Petrova - Russia
Tournament Seed: #5
2006 overall record: 33-11
2006 hard court record: 11-7
Best US Open finish: Quarterfinals 2004, 2005
WagerWeb.com odds to win the title: +5250
After totally dominating the clay court season, Petrova's season came crashing down in the French Open, as she was injured during her first-round match and was defeated. Petrova has not been the same since the injury, and has posted a mediocre 11-7 hard court record, including four straight first-round losses in hard court tournaments. If Petrova was healthy and playing at the top of her game, she could easily challenge for the US Open crown. But she's not, so she won't. Maybe next year.
Click here for the 2006 US Open Odds.
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by Rich Carlson at
wagerweb.com on August 29, 2006
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