World Cup: Disappointing underdogs

by Shawn Sillinger

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Value menus may be all the rage at fast-food joints, but there hasn't been much value to go around in Germany at the 2006 World Cup.

Things have gone very much according to plan up to this point during the first stage of the biggest tournament in the world. The world's soccer heavyweights are largely in good shape heading into the weekend; England has already reached the knockout round after Thursday's 2-0 victory over Trinidad and Tobago, and it seems just a matter of time before they're joined by the likes of Brazil and Argentina.

Things don't look so rosy for the United States. The Americans were a tempting underdog choice to advance in Group E, but they had an uninspired Cup opener against the Czech Republic, losing 3-0. Team USA was +370 to win, while the Czechs were even money. Now the Americans are in desperate need of a victory in Saturday's matchup with Italy. The Italians had all the earmarks of an overvalued club heading into Germany; however, their 2-0 dismantling of Ghana last Monday was a thing of beauty - the Azzurri pounded 13 shots on goal against Ghana.

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Italy is a fat -225 to win Saturday against Team USA. The Americans are +780 puppies, with a draw priced at +250. The Azzurri haven't lost a match since dropping one to Slovenia back in 2004, collecting 11 wins and eight draws in the interim. Although Team USA has risen to fifth in the FIFA world rankings, the Czechs made it abundantly clear that American soccer has lost ground since 2002, when the States made it to the quarterfinals.

Perhaps more disappointing for underdog bettors was Ukraine's 4-0 loss to Spain. Like Italy, Spain was supposed to be overvalued coming into the World Cup. The Spaniards have a history of disappointing play at the Cup, and on paper Spain is lacking in firepower. But four goals against Ukraine's normally solid defense told a different story. The Spaniards cashed in at -110 to win; Ukraine was +380 to get the duke in their first-ever World Cup appearance (they were previously part of the Soviet Union squad).



Ukraine's situation isn't quite as dire as Team USA's. The Americans are playing in one of the Groups of Death, from which the Czechs and Italians are now poised to advance to the knockout stage. Ukraine is still very much alive Group H; Saudi Arabia and Tunisia drew 2-2 in their opening match, leaving the door open for Ukraine to climb out of the basement with a win Monday over the Saudis. Ukraine is a -250 favorite to claim victory in that match. Saudi Arabia, who showed plenty of talent against Tunisia, are +700 to do the same, with a draw pegged at +275.

In between those two affairs is Sunday's intriguing fixture between France and South Korea. France could only manage a goalless draw against Switzerland this past Tuesday, while the Koreans took advantage of a Togo red card to win 2-1 and vault to the top of the Group G standings. Still, the French are -250 to win Sunday; the Koreans are +700 underdogs, and a draw will pay +275. That's a shade higher than the +260 draw bettors claimed after France and Switzerland put up a pair of goose eggs.



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by BetUSradio at 1800-sports.com on June 16, 2006


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